{"id":"rust-case-odds-index-2026","title":"Rust Case Odds Index 2026","description":"A dated public-page audit of whether case-opening catalogues expose enough information to calculate one case's expected credited value.","license":"CC BY 4.0","licenseUrl":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","version":"2026-08-28.1","publishedAt":"2026-08-28","updatedAt":"2026-08-28","observedAt":"2026-08-28T11:04:32.000Z","methodology":["Open each operator-controlled public source without signing in and record whether case opening is named.","Attempt to capture one case name, price, complete probability table and operator-credited item values from the same page version.","Calculate expected credited value and implied return only when every outcome probability and credited value is present.","Use null for a field that is unavailable, account-gated, client-rendered beyond inspection or incomplete; never estimate a missing value."],"limitations":["The audit did not create accounts, open cases or inspect account-only catalogues.","A listed game format does not establish the odds, return or continued availability of a particular case.","Operator-credited item values are not Steam Wallet or cash-market values.","Four sampled RustClash case pages exposed complete public price, probability and credited-value tables; other operators remain unknown where the same input set was not captured."],"unknownValue":null,"sources":[{"id":"case-rustsnowball-games","label":"RustSnowball game directory","url":"https://rustsnowball.com/games","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-howl-home","label":"Howl public site","url":"https://howl.gg/","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-bandit-games","label":"Bandit Camp games help collection","url":"https://help.bandit.camp/en/collections/3397291-games","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rustclash-home","label":"RustClash public game catalogue","url":"https://rustclash.com/","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rustclash-full-metal","label":"RustClash Full Metal case","url":"https://rustclash.com/cases/Full-Metal","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rustclash-desert-raider","label":"RustClash Desert Raider case","url":"https://rustclash.com/cases/desert-raider","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rustclash-crim","label":"RustClash Crim Case","url":"https://rustclash.com/cases/Crim-Case","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rustclash-neon","label":"RustClash Neon case","url":"https://rustclash.com/cases/neon","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rustyloot-home","label":"RustyLoot public site","url":"https://rustyloot.gg/","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rustmagic-home","label":"RustMagic public site","url":"https://rustmagic.com/","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rustreaper-home","label":"RustReaper public site","url":"https://rustreaper.com/","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-500-home","label":"500 Casino public site","url":"https://500.casino/","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"},{"id":"case-rts3","label":"UK Gambling Commission RTS 3 — likelihood and prize information","url":"https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/manual/remote-gambling-and-software-technical-standards/rts-3-rules-game-descriptions-and-the-likelihood-of-winning","checkedAt":"2026-08-28"}],"versionHistory":[{"version":"2026-08-28.1","date":"2026-08-28","change":"Initial public-source audit with four complete RustClash case calculations; missing inputs for other rows retained as null."}],"columns":[{"key":"operator","label":"Operator","description":"Operator name in the reviewed set."},{"key":"publicCatalogueState","label":"Case opening named","description":"Whether the reviewed public source names case opening."},{"key":"sampledCase","label":"Sampled case","description":"One case captured from a public page, or null."},{"key":"casePriceUnits","label":"Case price","description":"Price in the operator's displayed balance unit, or null."},{"key":"probabilityTableTotalPercent","label":"Probability total","description":"Sum of a complete public outcome table, or null."},{"key":"expectedCreditedValueUnits","label":"Expected credited value","description":"Probability-weighted site value, calculated only from complete inputs."},{"key":"impliedReturnPercent","label":"Implied return","description":"Expected credited value divided by case price, or null."},{"key":"finding","label":"Finding","description":"Narrow evidence note for the row."}],"rows":[{"operator":"RustSnowball","operatorSlug":"rustsnowball","sourceId":"case-rustsnowball-games","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":null,"casePriceUnits":null,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":null,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":null,"impliedReturnPercent":null,"findingState":"partial","finding":"The public directory names case opening; a synchronized complete case table was not captured for this index."},{"operator":"Howl","operatorSlug":"howl","sourceId":"case-howl-home","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":null,"casePriceUnits":null,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":null,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":null,"impliedReturnPercent":null,"findingState":"partial","finding":"Case play is named in the reviewed public presentation; numeric case inputs remain unknown."},{"operator":"Bandit Camp","operatorSlug":"bandit-camp","sourceId":"case-bandit-games","publicCatalogueState":"not-confirmed","sampledCase":null,"casePriceUnits":null,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":null,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":null,"impliedReturnPercent":null,"findingState":"unknown","finding":"The reviewed help collection did not support a complete case-opening calculation."},{"operator":"RustClash","operatorSlug":"rustclash","sourceId":"case-rustclash-full-metal","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":"Full Metal","casePriceUnits":30.98,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":100,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":27.8779,"impliedReturnPercent":89.9868,"findingState":"complete","finding":"Price, full probability table and displayed gem values were captured from one public case page; EV and implied return are editorial calculations."},{"operator":"RustClash","operatorSlug":"rustclash","sourceId":"case-rustclash-desert-raider","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":"Desert Raider","casePriceUnits":5.37,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":100,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":4.829,"impliedReturnPercent":89.9255,"findingState":"complete","finding":"Price, ten outcome probabilities and displayed gem values were captured from one public case page; EV and implied return are editorial calculations."},{"operator":"RustClash","operatorSlug":"rustclash","sourceId":"case-rustclash-crim","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":"Crim Case","casePriceUnits":24.44,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":100,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":22.6305,"impliedReturnPercent":92.5962,"findingState":"complete","finding":"Price, six outcome probabilities and displayed gem values were captured from one public case page; EV and implied return are editorial calculations."},{"operator":"RustClash","operatorSlug":"rustclash","sourceId":"case-rustclash-neon","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":"Neon","casePriceUnits":5.02,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":100,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":4.51724,"impliedReturnPercent":89.9849,"findingState":"complete","finding":"Price, full probability table and displayed gem values were captured from one public case page; EV and implied return are editorial calculations."},{"operator":"RustyLoot","operatorSlug":"rustyloot","sourceId":"case-rustyloot-home","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":null,"casePriceUnits":null,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":null,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":null,"impliedReturnPercent":null,"findingState":"partial","finding":"Case opening is associated with the public catalogue; price, probabilities and credited values remain unknown in this snapshot."},{"operator":"RustMagic","operatorSlug":"rustmagic","sourceId":"case-rustmagic-home","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":null,"casePriceUnits":null,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":null,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":null,"impliedReturnPercent":null,"findingState":"partial","finding":"The reviewed public presentation names case play; complete numeric inputs were not captured."},{"operator":"RustReaper","operatorSlug":"rustreaper","sourceId":"case-rustreaper-home","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":null,"casePriceUnits":null,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":null,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":null,"impliedReturnPercent":null,"findingState":"partial","finding":"The reviewed public presentation names cases; expected return remains unknown without a complete same-time table."},{"operator":"500 Casino","operatorSlug":"500-casino","sourceId":"case-500-home","publicCatalogueState":"listed","sampledCase":null,"casePriceUnits":null,"probabilityTableTotalPercent":null,"expectedCreditedValueUnits":null,"impliedReturnPercent":null,"findingState":"partial","finding":"Case formats appear in the reviewed catalogue; this audit did not obtain a complete public sampled case table."}]}