Rust Wheel Probability and Payout Completeness Guide

Calculate equal-segment Rust wheel probabilities, combine repeated payout segments and test whether the complete multiplier table supports a stated expected return.

Which Rust wheel do you mean?

The in-game Bandit Town Scrap wheel is not the Bandit.Camp gambling website. Facepunch’s original Bandit Town announcement describes numbered bets of 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20, with the stake returned in addition to the numbered payout. That is a historical settlement example, not verification of today’s weights, server configuration or any third-party skin site’s probabilities.

Use the calculator with the rules of the exact game you are checking. This guide does not establish a current official 25-segment paytable, and the examples below must not be substituted for one. A winning pattern or payout guarantee cannot be derived from this worksheet.

Wheel segment calculator

This models the entered mathematics, not a round prediction. Compare the formula, payout and edge with the site’s current rules.

Probability6.67%
Fair multiplier before edge15×
Implied return93.33%
Expected net per 100-6.67

The calculation runs in this browser. Entered values are neither transmitted nor stored.

Check the complete payout table

Enter every mutually exclusive outcome of one wager. Each segment is assumed equally likely. A zero payout means a losing outcome.

Implied return90%
Expected net per 100-10
SegmentsProbabilityReturn including stakeContribution to return
660%0×0%
220%1.5×30%
110%2×20%
110%4×40%

Calculations stay in this browser. Inputs are neither transmitted nor stored. This is a formula check, not a prediction or fairness certification.

The complete-table example uses ten equal segments: six return nothing, two return 1.5×, one returns 2×, and one returns 4× including the stake. Its expected return is 90%, or an expected net loss of 10 units per 100 wagered. These are illustrative inputs, not any operator’s current wheel. If the rules use unequal probabilities, bonus rounds, refunds or overlapping outcomes, this equal-segment model is not sufficient. The export records the payout convention so the calculation can be reproduced.

Update, 5 September 2026: added complete-table validation, stake-return conventions and matching CSV/JSON exports. Operator evidence dates have not been changed by this calculator update.

Equal segments: the simple model

For a wheel with N equally likely segments, a payout appearing on c segments has probability c / N. If the same multiplier appears in several places, add all those segments. Position on the artwork does not create a separate probability when the rules define uniform selection.

A 20-segment wheel with four segments marked 2× therefore gives 4 / 20 = 20% probability of that displayed payout. The complement—landing on any other segment—is 80%. That says nothing about the whole paytable until every other outcome is counted.

Payout-completeness table

This ten-segment example is deliberately constructed for arithmetic practice. It is not copied from a live wheel.

Total multiplierSegment countProbabilityContribution to expected return
0×660%0.00
1.5×220%0.30
2×110%0.20
5×110%0.50
Total10100%1.00 (100%)

Expected return is the sum of probability × total multiplier for every row. The example totals 100%, so it has no edge under its simplified definitions. Change the 5× segment to 4× and the total becomes 90%, implying a 10% edge if there are no other awards or deductions.

Be precise about whether the multiplier includes the returned stake. A “1× profit” label can mean the player also receives the stake, producing 2× total, while another interface uses 1× to mean total return. Copy the settlement wording rather than normalizing it silently.

Unequal weights and roll ranges

Artwork is insufficient when segments have different angular sizes, virtual weights or hidden roll intervals. In that model, record the complete random range allocated to each outcome. A one-pixel visual boundary cannot replace the numerical mapping.

For a roll from 0 through 9,999, a 2× region covering 2,000 integers has 20% probability. Check inclusive endpoints: 0–1,999 contains 2,000 values, while 0–2,000 contains 2,001. Reproduce the operator's exact integer or decimal convention.

Verify result generation separately

A completed-round verifier should connect the commitment and revealed inputs to the random output, then connect that output to a segment or roll range. It can reveal a correct mapping even when the paytable has a substantial edge. Conversely, a mathematically complete paytable does not show that a recorded outcome followed the stated random process.

The regulator sources describe accessible likelihood information and random generation as distinct controls. That distinction is useful beyond any one jurisdiction: keep the probability table, result method and economic settlement as separate evidence records.

Test a wheel table for silent omissions

Group identical payouts, but retain the original segment or range IDs so the sum can be traced back to the interface. Then verify three totals: probability is approximately 100%, every selectable wager has a complete settlement row, and the expected-return calculation uses total payout rather than an ambiguous profit label.

If a bonus sector triggers another wheel or award table, include that branch in the model. Treating it as a fixed prize can understate or overstate return. Progressive amounts require a timestamp and stated contribution rule; a moving jackpot cannot be inserted as a timeless constant.

Wheel audit worksheet

LayerWhat to captureFailure condition
LayoutEvery segment or numerical intervalA rare payout is shown but its weight is absent
ProbabilityEqual weighting rule or exact range sizesArtwork is assumed to be probability
PayoutTotal return for every outcomeStake return is ambiguous
Expected returnSum of all p × multiplier rowsProbabilities or payout rows are incomplete
VerificationRound ID, seeds, nonce, roll and mappingA badge appears without reproducible inputs

The game-type taxonomy explains why wheel is normally audited as a house-banked format. Use the house-edge comparison only after the full table passes the completeness check.

The Bandit Camp review links the dated public game evidence used for context; it does not support applying the example paytable to that operator.

Illustrative equal-segment wheel

Matching segmentsNominal probability
27 of 5450.00%; fair 2x
18 of 5433.33%; fair 3x
6 of 5411.11%; fair 9x
3 of 545.56%; fair 18x

Repeatable check

  1. Count total and matching segments.
  2. Confirm equal weighting.
  3. Check the rule-to-result mapping.
  4. Compare payout with the fair multiplier.

Same segments, different payout conventions

Hypothetical example, not an operator quote.

One of ten equally likely segments wins; nine lose. If 9× includes the stake, expected return is 0.1 × 9 = 90%. If 9× means profit and the stake returns separately, expected return is 0.1 × 10 = 100%.

Check the payout convention and the complete outcome table. Visual segment size alone does not establish selection probability; previous spins do not alter an independent next spin.

Download inputs and calculated outputs (JSON) · 2026-09-11.1

Compare documented options

The calculation explains the numbers, not operator reliability. Compare the published rules and unresolved account conditions before choosing a platform.

Read Bandit Camp’s documented game and withdrawal findings
Claim-level audit

What each cited finding depends on

SectionFindingStatusEvidenceChecked
Which Rust wheel?Facepunch’s 2018 launch documentation describes an in-game Scrap wheel and stake-plus-multiplier settlement; this does not establish current third-party website odds.verifiedFacepunch — Bandit Town launch: Scrap wheel and returned-stake convention2026-09-05
Segment probabilityA wheel likelihood can be calculated from segment counts only when the rules establish that the segments have equal selection weight.partialUK Gambling Commission RTS 3 — rules and likelihood2026-08-28
Random selectionRandom-outcome guidance concerns the generated distribution and scaling, while payout completeness still depends on the separately published multiplier table.partialUK Gambling Commission RTS 7 — generation of random outcomes, UK Gambling Commission RTS 3 — rules and likelihood2026-08-28
Rust game contextThe reviewed Bandit Camp help collection provides public game material, used here only as Rust-wheel context rather than evidence of a universal paytable.partialBandit Camp public games help collection2026-08-28

A partial finding means the source supports only the stated documentation point. It is not a transaction, legality or payout-performance result.

Sources and checking date

Sources checked 2026-08-28. Public sources may have changed after the recorded checking date.